Caroline Holmes

Polar Climate Scientist

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Caroline Holmes

Polar Climate Scientist

Biography

My research at BAS seeks to understand how the current set of climate models used in climate change assessments simulates sea ice, and how this affects our future projections of climate change both within the polar regions and remotely. I am analysing output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) used in the most recent IPCC asssessment (2013) to evaluate how different models simulate the dynamic and thermodynamic processes important to the evolution of sea ice concentration. I work closely with BAS colleagues in both the Polar Oceans team and Atmosphere, Ice and Climate teams. This research is funded under the NERC large grant “Real Projections – Robust projections of real world climate change” led by Mat Collins at the University of Exeter.

I completed an undergraduate degree in Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, followed by an MSc in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate at the University of Reading. With a particular interest in atmospheric dynamics, I pursued a PhD at the University of Reading Department of Meteorology. My thesis investigated the possible impacts of changes in sea ice cover on the midlatitude atmosphere, through idealised modelling experiments with imposed sea ice. I then undertook a short postdoc at the University of Edinburgh looking at impacts of climate change on Scotland in sectors such as building energy demand, before moving to the British Antarctic Survey to pursue research into the coupled climate system of the polar regions.

Publications from NERC Open Research Archive

2024

Bracegirdle, Thomas J. , Caton Harrison, Thomas , Holmes, Caroline R. , Lu, Hua , Martineau, Patrick, Phillips, Tony . (2024) Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7. 12 pp. 10.1038/s41467-024-53317-y

Collins, Matthew, Beverley, Jonathan D., Bracegirdle, Thomas J. , Catto, Jennifer, McCrystall, Michelle, Dittus, Andrea, Freychet, Nicolas, Grist, Jeremy , Hegerl, Gabriele C., Holland, Paul R. , Holmes, Caroline , Josey, Simon A. , Joshi, Manoj, Hawkins, Ed, Lo, Eunice, Lord, Natalie, Mitchell, Dann, Monerie, Paul-Arthur, Priestley, Matthew D. K., Scaife, Adam, Screen, James, Senior, Natasha, Sexton, David, Shuckburgh, Emily, Siegert, Stefan, Simpson, Charles, Stephenson, David B., Sutton, Rowan, Thompson, Vikki, Wilcox, Laura J., Woollings, Tim. (2024) Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world. Frontiers in Science, 2. 20 pp. 10.3389/fsci.2024.1340323

Jena, Babula, Turner, John , Reeves-Francois, Tylei, Bajish, C. C, Holmes, Caroline , Caton Harrison, Thomas , Phillips, Tony , Wang, Zhaomin. (2024) Occurrence of an unusual extensive ice-free feature within the pack ice of the central Weddell Sea, Antarctica. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7. 8 pp. 10.1038/s41612-024-00700-7

Diamond, Rachel , Sime, Louise C. , Holmes, Caroline R. , Schroeder, David. (2024) CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea‐Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023. Geophysical Research Letters, 51. 10 pp. 10.1029/2024GL109265

Jena, Babula, Kshitija, S., Bajish, C.C., Turner, John , Holmes, Caroline , Wilkinson, Jeremy, Mohan, Rahul, Thamban, M.. (2024) Evolution of Antarctic Sea Ice Ahead of the Record Low Annual Maximum Extent in September 2023. Geophysical Research Letters, 51. 10 pp. 10.1029/2023GL107561

Gilbert, Ella , Holmes, Caroline . (2024) 2023’s Antarctic sea ice extent is the lowest on record. Weather, 79. 6 pp. 10.1002/wea.4518

2023

Siegert, Martin, Bentley, Mike J., Atkinson, Angus, Bracegirdle, Thomas J. , Convey, Peter , Davies, Bethan, Downie, Rod, Hogg, Anna E., Holmes, Caroline , Hughes, Kevin A. , Meredith, Michael P. , Ross, Neil, Rumble, Jane, Wilkinson, Jeremy. (2023) Antarctic extreme events. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 11. 15 pp. 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1229283

2022

Turner, John , Holmes, Caroline , Caton Harrison, Thomas , Phillips, Tony , Jena, Babula, Reeves-Francois, Tylei, Fogt, Ryan, Thomas, Elizabeth R. , Bajish, C.C.. (2022) Record low Antarctic sea ice cover in February 2022. Geophysical Research Letters, 49. 11 pp. 10.1029/2022GL098904

Holmes, C.R. , Bracegirdle, T.J. , Holland, P.R. . (2022) Antarctic sea ice projections constrained by historical ice cover and future global temperature change. Geophysical Research Letters, 49. 10 pp. 10.1029/2021GL097413

2020

Bracegirdle, T.J. , Holmes, C.R. , Hosking, J.S. , Marshall, G.J. , Osman, M., Patterson, M., Rackow, T.. (2020) Improvements in Circumpolar Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5. Earth and Space Science, 7. 12 pp. 10.1029/2019EA001065

Roach, Lettie A., Dörr, Jakob, Holmes, Caroline R. , Massonnet, François, Blockley, Edward W., Notz, Dirk, Rackow, Thomas, Raphael, Marilyn N., O'Farrell, Siobhan P., Bailey, David A., Bitz, Cecilia M.. (2020) Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 47. 10.1029/2019GL086729

2019

Holmes, Caroline R. , Holland, Paul R. , Bracegirdle, Thomas J. . (2019) Compensating biases and a noteworthy success in the CMIP5 representation of Antarctic sea ice processes. Geophysical Research Letters, 46. 4299-4307. 10.1029/2018GL081796

2018

Hosking, J. Scott , MacLeod, D., Phillips, T. , Holmes, C.R. , Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E.F. , Mitchell, D.. (2018) Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5°C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters, 13. 10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78