Ice core evidence for a 20th century decline in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica

This study uses ice core methanesulphonic acid (MSA) records from the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have been warming faster than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere, to reconstruct the 20th century history of sea ice change in the adjacent Bellingshausen Sea. Using satellite-derived sea ice and meteorological data, we show that ice core MSA records from this region are a reliable proxy for regional sea ice change, with years of increased winter sea ice extent recorded by increased ice core MSA concentrations. Our reconstruction suggests that the satellite-observed sea ice decline in the Bellingshausen Sea during recent decades is part of a long-term regional trend that has occurred throughout the 20th century. The long-term perspective on sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea is consistent with evidence of 20th century warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and may reflect a progressive deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and, more recently, stratospheric ozone depletion. As a first-order estimate, our MSA-based reconstruction suggests that sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea has retreated southward by ~0.7° during the 20th century. Comparison with other 20th century sea ice observations, reconstructions, and model simulations provides a coherent picture of Antarctic sea ice decline during the 20th century, although with regional-scale differences evident in the timing and magnitude of this sea ice decline. This longer-term perspective contrasts with the small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice that is observed in post-1979 satellite data.

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